growth

2014, the year of the economic rebound

Start

76 entrepreneurs predict the end of the crisis by 2014, followed by spectacular growth of up to 3.7% per year. On 11 April, one of the main associations of entrepreneurs, "Parrainer la Croissance", offered to collectively imagine what France's growth will be like over the next ten years.

Indeed, it turns out that collective forecasts are more relevant than those of the best experts, as long as they respect the rules defined by the theory of predictive markets. (1).

A first reference vote was conducted with 76 participants. Eleven of the book's co-authors then provided some food for thought France's economic reboundpublished on 6 April in the Pearson Publishing. These are innovators, mostly founders of growth start-ups and SMEs, who have expressed their reasons for believing in this rebound. Finally, in a second vote, the participants individually estimated the GDP for the coming years, as well as the average of the group's estimates.

The results of the analysis are as follows:

● the crisis continues for another two years with a soft growth of 1.0 and 1.2% in 2012 and 2013;

Why not enjoy unlimited reading of UP'? Subscribe from €1.90 per week.

● as of 2014, growth exceeds the long-term trend, i.e. 2.1% on average since the end of the thirty glorious years;

● in 2015, it continues to strengthen to 2.8%;

● from 2016 onwards, growth is set firmly above 3.3%, peaking at 3.7% in 2018;

● the degree of confidence in the rebound is solid, as the variation in prediction between the two votes is limited to a 6-month lag in the forecast schedule, with the other figures remaining unchanged.

This prediction heralds a cycle of "creative destruction", as described by Joseph Schumpeter (2)and in which the maturity of new technologies and the power of innovation are first causing industrial sectors to disappear and then new activities to emerge.

This phenomenon had been observed in particular at the end of the 19th century during the second industrial revolution. In just a few years, this cycle led France to the height of its prosperity and influence in the world during the "Belle Epoque", overcoming a deep economic crisis and the collapse of political power.

By comparing the prediction of the 76 entrepreneurs over the period 2012-2013 with the "black scenario" of the Centre for Strategic Analysis (3)In the case of the United States, it is even more pessimistic, with 1% of growth compared to 1.5%.

On the other hand, it is significantly more optimistic than the best scenario in the CAS, with more than 3.3% of growth compared to 2.5% in 2015. This prediction would lead to a rapid reduction in France's debt and lower the structural unemployment rate below 4.5%.

(1 ) See in particular Surowiecki James. The Wisdom of Crowds. Anchor, 2005

(2) Schumpeter Joeph. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. Harper Perennial Modern Classics, 2008

To fight against disinformation and to favour analyses that decipher the news, join the circle of UP' subscribers.

(3) Centre d'analyse stratégique. France 2030: five growth scenarios. La Documentation Française, 2011.

The book to read 

vincentlorphanFrance's economic rebound : 85 innovators, actors of growth and employment testify - Vincent Lorphelin - Preface by Pierre Kosciusko-Morizet, Founder and CEO of PriceMinister / Ed. Pearson, Global Village Collection

The rebound after the crisis is possible! Thanks to France's innovative strength, it can regain the momentum of sustained growth. This is the resolutely optimistic and lucid point that Vincent Lorphelin is defending here by giving the floor to 85 managers of French start-ups and SMEs who are remarkably energetic and creative in a context that is nevertheless chaotic. France can recover, as it did at the end of the 19th century, when the Belle Époque succeeded the Great Depression. At a time when the country was thought to be in decline, the abundance of innovations in photography, electricity, automobiles, aviation, pharmaceuticals, fine chemicals and metallurgy - revealed by the 1889 Universal Exhibition - gave a tremendous boost to the economy. Are we not in the same situation today?

For Vincent Lorphelin, the ten signs that heralded the rebound of 1889 are once again evident in present-day France. He identifies them in this book and illustrates them by presenting 178 emerging sectors and 301 innovations. These examples show to what extent new practices, gains in competitiveness, revaluation of know-how, value creation, exports and France's influence in the world are a formidable lever for growth. 

www.innovateurs.fr

Contact: Vincent Lorphelin / v.lorphelin@venturepatents.com / 01 56 33 91 91 91

The Leadership Club: Sponsoring Growth

Sponsor Growth is a network of 1600 innovative companies. Its club wants to make SME growth the cement of our society. To work with a new generation of entrepreneurs who want a better shared growth to be an opportunity to put the social lift back in motion. We want everyone to realise that SMEs could be at the centre of societal innovation, without losing their profit-making purpose. "PLC" is an association built, managed and inhabited by entrepreneurs to house all of society.

www.parrainerlacroissance.org

Contact: Denis Jacquet / dj@parrainerlacroissance.org / 06 99 54 25 26

{Jacuzzi on}

0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
bulbs
Previous article

Innovation management, a key lever in the modernization of the State

fleurpellerin
Next article

Fleur Pellerin, appointed Minister of Innovation and the Digital Economy

Latest articles from Innovation Economy Archive

JOIN

THE CIRCLE OF THOSE WHO WANT TO UNDERSTAND OUR TIME OF TRANSITION, LOOK AT THE WORLD WITH OPEN EYES AND ACT.
logo-UP-menu150

Already registered? I'm connecting

Inscrivez-vous et lisez three articles for free. Recevez aussi notre newsletter pour être informé des dernières infos publiées.

→ Register for free to continue reading.

JOIN

THE CIRCLE OF THOSE WHO WANT TO UNDERSTAND OUR TIME OF TRANSITION, LOOK AT THE WORLD WITH OPEN EYES AND ACT

You have received 3 free articles to discover UP'.

Enjoy unlimited access to our content!

From $1.99 per week only.
Share
Tweet
Share
WhatsApp
Email