In the midst of the disaster, what exits?

Or the political state of our societies... But what about the bottom of the disasters in progress, both for the human race and, more broadly, for all living things, and more globally, for our entire planet? What essential energies and processes, who, what, why and how?

The planet and humanity have experienced waves and waves of monstrosities, of catastrophic masterful errors. Continuous advances in science that constantly rewrite history are bringing to light and testify that we have not yet identified any apparent beginnings to this reality in the time of times. Today, there are always one or more wars somewhere, always genocides (for example, at the beginning of 2014 in Burma, this time perpetrated by Buddhist populations (!) or in Sudan, animists by so-called Muslim fundamentalists (who have misread the Koran), always epidemics without the UN being able to do anything about it but doing enough (why is this a fundamental question).
Debts and financial bubbles have become so large that they are deemed no longer able to burst unless there is a general global collapse.

Nuclear safety continues to be relative; in the last few days, entire reserves of deadly viruses are disappearing! Worse, we have just highlighted the fact that the world population, through its consumption, has reached the point in 2013 where, by mid-April, it will have drained all the resources that the planet is capable of reproducing, which means that the rest of the consumption is taken without sufficient renewal of resources, and that nature is inevitably deteriorating, and that we are therefore getting closer and closer to our collective resource limits.

The most recent world environmental reports are "irrefutable", obviously systematically and irrefutably educated according to all the parameters to be considered.
Although there are natural factors other than human ones, the overwhelming responsibility of the human factor is finally recognized as unavoidable, ... even by some of the institutes.
"cans and chestnuts" invested for denial and blindness.
Never in our collective history have we been so dangerous, even during the great plagues of yesteryear, the crises of the 1920s, or the worst of the Second World War of the 20th century!

The international scientific community is aware of this, and an increasingly important, multidisciplinary part of it has been striving to sound the alarm for years. Alerters are multiplying to inform public opinion, at the risk of their lives. All governments and their apparatuses can only know this, including the main intelligence centres (which are not only military). Religious authorities too, of course.

And nothing is moving: the governments of the main nations (US, China, Russia) practically continue to refuse to commit themselves to environmental issues (apart from not having signed any international treaty), even though they are clearly identified and publicised. The major emerging nations (India, Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, etc.) continue to walk a tightrope according to their logic of growth, which primarily targets the level of development of the former "great powers".

Regardless of the state, the dominant neoliberalism (much closer to today's reality than the now fuzzy concept of capitalism) is generating a growing gap, such as never between very rich and all the others (largely comfortable, average, poor and miserable). The intertwining of politics and economics of globalization is such that no state has the capacity to remain in control of its real economy and system of society. The one and only value remains money, according to the canons of short-term financial profitability.

The multiple initiatives and investments of other forms of life in society, which exist enough to testify to their maturity, are not connected enough to each other, not enough to be valued by the "big" media, and do not carry overall weight in the face of the powers of the large multinational, private companies. They are just tolerated because they are not yet dangerous enough for the dominant neo-liberals, and for a while they will continue to act as a mouthpiece; but the nibbling that began at the end of the Second World War, and accelerated with the fall of the Soviet camp, is being eradicated little by little without mercy, without making any noise.

The international public governance bodies explicitly show their powerlessness to the populations fooled by media that are mostly controlled by the financial powers.

In the West, the structures that make and break people to public and private authorities, organizations such as Bilderberg and its Trilateral offshoots or Davos and others ..., are imbued with a neoliberal paradigm considered as a single thought truth, which currently generates the restrictions of the populations in favor of the exploitation-spoliation of all wealth by a tiny minority. All the "high level elites", both public and private, have been trained, in fact, formatted, to the same model alone, gradually but systematically, the other systems of reference having been gradually stifled to remain known and recognized only by a minority of intellectuals, often qualified as "the intellectuals of the past".
"archaic and politically immature." It is hard to imagine that there are no comparable or similar structures at the level of the Chinese block and around the reconstituted block around Moscow.

The only relative brake, expressed in the introductory speech of the last Davos forum, is the apprehension of numerous and hard social revolts, "enough" to be likely to endanger the continuity of the current looting.

Behind these formal structures stand, masked and hidden, even occult, the true masters of our civilizations, who no longer even bother with "well-thought-out explanatory argumentation", if they ever did.
Faced with them, there is no longer any real democracy in decisions and actions, only in appearance. The last Nordic or Austreal bastions have just toppled over.
The Western hold is closing its pincers with plans for intense "negotiations" of free trade treaties covering the full range of
public and private life, both on the Atlantic and Pacific sides.
All these strategies in total denial and disdain for the state of the planet and its people.

What is at the heart of this reality, why and how?

The greed of the holders of capital, who have come to resemble Uncle Picou swimming on his heaps of gold, since the "war of solidarity" between them is seeking to find where to place these immeasurable fortunes whose peoples are being plundered, buy up all the land that can be bought, lend with negative interest to certain States whose citizens will one day be punished, ... this insatiable greed does not explain everything.

The apparent lack of awareness of these major holders is that of a caste comprising far less than 1 % of the world's population. A "caste", a concept that better reflects today's reality than the "class" concept of the nineteenth and first half of the twentieth century.
This caste is international, and its cumulative capitalization gives most of its members control over enough institutes to validate the principles that support them, enough private transportation and private security services to isolate them from the rest of the world, and more and more financial means to "play". Playing with the currencies of the States, the resources useful to the greatest number or the few, all the "markets", living in a luxury that is hard to imagine with only a small part of the interest of their capital, when it is not the ransom money of mafia systems.

This caste, because of its financial means, the images of fictitious powers that it carefully maintains, the veulerie of part of the "masses" out of conformism and fear, the perceived impotence of the other part also due to lack of education and a minimum of room for manoeuvre, ... this caste is surrounded by a "sufficient" number of multidisciplinary servants, very well paid and who believe themselves to be privileged.
If a very recent EU-US study shows that 60 to 70 people hold as much "wealth" as 50 % of the population (3.5 billion), let us assume that the total of
this caste and the different categories of "servants" reaches perhaps 5 % of the population? This would still represent 350 million people, scattered and linked in complex networks, most of them not even aware of the fabric in which they participate. Plus all the tyrannical smallholders who finish the "job".

Whether this caste functions according to a mafia system of the Italian-American, or Russian, or Asian, or Japanese kind, or according to an "ordinary" socio-economic system, in any case the rest of humanity has to do with a "plural mafia". In fact, on the one hand, all humanist values, with or without related spirituality, have disappeared de facto, ... despite the speeches made. On the other hand, once co-opted and inserted into these nets, it is very dangerous to get out, because then the principle of the isolated individual reigns and one cannot count on any cooperation to survive.

The habit of luxury and an apparent life of privilege is reinforced by the feeling of superiority shared within this caste. "Amongst ourselves" we are either in or out of the elite, the only ones who can pull the strings of those who are "in business". But let there be no mistake, individualization is absolute for everything that counts; systematic individualization is one of the pillars of the reference system of dominant neoliberalism, and whoever wants to play cooperation or even collective and humanities comes out of the clan. Apparent signs, out of reach for the vulgus pecusA high level of education and culture is no longer enough; "fortune" alone has become unavoidable.
The break with the rest of the world then became total, in a world that was both virtual and very real. It has thus become impossible for the members of this caste to "see" the disaster into which the planet has entered, and from which the members of this same caste will also suffer, ... a little later than the others (not always).

All the visionaries predict that this situation will not last as it is, having realized that we are already "in the wall". So what, not a solution because there can no longer be a half measure solution given the state of the planet and our societies, but are exits possible?

Possible Outputs

I can imagine three of them, mentioned from the most beautiful to the hardest, because we have waited too long, despite the desperate signals of a few, and their probability of occurrence will increase from the first to the last mentioned. In the face of such an aggression, it is no longer time to try to play the "good guys". teddy bear ", half measures, or even mediators.

The most harmonious way out: the enlightened initiatives are linked enough to know how to overcome their differences and highlight THE or A new paradigm of civilization, based on a radical change in the level of consciousness of a large number; large number because if the enlightened initiatives (there are already millions of them on the various continents) also concern, as mentioned above, 5 % of the population, then it is also 350 million people, with the advantage of being in the midst of populations, "like a fish in water". Then the "society of the spectacle" is seduced, because the bride is suddenly blindly beautiful enough to "go there", massively (and at the right time) develops the main features and selected examples of civilization of the dawn of a new Era, and takes speed to the capacities of dominant powers to react. There are indeed a few hundred sudden illnesses, strange plane or car accidents, violent attacks, but then a tidal wave swells where bottom movement and top movement are unleashed together and sweep away the existing rulers. With the movement from below, initiatives criss-cross the ground because, linked in the "overcoming", some armies turn their sticks, new great leaders emerge from the "mass", etc... There is no longer even time to discuss the new values and practices, the old ones are simply obsolete, obviously. There is nothing to negotiate. Everybody, all of us, is working hard. It will have been a smooth break.

A new "non-aligned" movement: the increasing emphasis on global issues is leading several emerging governments to form a new third voice, which collectively decides to move away from speculative thinking, thus denouncing the dollar as much as the yuan. As a result, several countries put a complete stop to Atlantic and peaceful free trade projects, causing these projects and other bilateral agreements to collapse, as well as those of the NAFTA type. The U.S. and China then engage in large-scale targeted military manoeuvres, since their currencies no longer allow for control coverage (the Russians are not strong enough in terms of population). But their economic dependence on all the other countries, the result of globalisation which is turning against them, considerably hinders them; and above all the highlighting of their responsibilities is such that in a majority of countries the populations rise up, ... and their armies are not powerful enough to impose themselves everywhere at the same time.

The club of non-aligned countries is taking the lead, supported by a massive commitment of experts and experienced actors of the anti-globalization movements, but also millions of competent actors hitherto bullied and humiliated by those at the helm, and who are "fed up". Only then will Europe free itself from the US hold, follow, and finally federalize. The governments of the non-aligned countries have understood that they can only succeed with the well-founded commitment of their populations and the internal opposition of the "already - ex" great powers, hence the massive dissemination of information on global issues and responsibilities through all media, supported by the launch of a massive popular education campaign in all circles. Young people naturally get involved with enthusiasm, with the exception of a minority of "sad sons and daughters".
The UN is dissolved and replaced by a world government based on the regeneration of the ecosystem and universal rights (already written since 1948 and 2009 improved and updated).

There is plenty of work for everyone, ... including all the surviving members of the old caste and their servants, all of whom have to work for twenty-five years (a quarter of a century) to recover from the disorders generated (with no possible limitation of punishment, because it is important to be credible in the eyes of all the others).

Chaos: it so happens that several social explosions are spreading in several countries, that a new major nuclear accident, a severe epidemic, a climatic event with a global impact (for example one or two super-volcanoes) occur almost simultaneously. Let's not forget that on the one hand several giant volcanoes are waiting to erupt "from one moment to the next", and on the other hand on a much smaller scale in France in 1789 if the revolts demanded "bread", this was largely the result of the famine caused by an eruption in Iceland.
Several countries are taking advantage of the situation to start a war of occupation, ... because let us not forget that the humiliations that have been suffered for two centuries have still not been resolved despite the generations. In the general confusion, one or more of the countries that actually possess nuclear weapons (at least eight known to date) use them, and then an international war more powerful than the two previous ones spreads. Entire areas are destroyed and made desert. Once the cataclysms have passed, the remaining population is restructured on the still inhabitable areas, sometimes underground. These new clans are forced to reinvent everything. Scenarios such as Mad Max or Postman are bound to set in. Among the survivors will remain only those who are capable of producing themselves and trading something useful to others, rediscovering professions and cooperation. Several generations will be needed to find pleasant living conditions in a new form of civilization, if our planet still allows it. For it is still too early to even dream of moving elsewhere.

These three scenarios are radical, it can no longer be otherwise.

The first is obviously the most desirable but unfortunately the least likely in the state of the dominant reference systems. The second has its chances, ... and could eventually open up to the first. If the third is the most likely, it is simply because, on the one hand, the dominant financial powers are cut off from the rest of the world and delude themselves in their single-mindedness about their superiority and security, and on the other hand, the great mass of those who believe they possess a little something and distinguish themselves from their neighbours are not ready to give it up or barter it away with simplicity and play the three monkeys (see nothing, hear nothing, say nothing).

In reality, what will most likely happen is several parallel scenarios partially intertwined. What will then become most desirable will be to open the conditions for the reduction of states of chaos to the benefit of the "non-aligned" states, and then the latter to the benefit of the states of the future happiest paradigm of civilization. This "work" will require the construction, starting from reality, of the relevant power relations of overcoming and/or constraint.

Michel ValléeSociologist - 2014

Photo: Illustration from Jamie McGuire's book "Disaster" - Suma Edition